As markets complete the first half of the calendar year 2022 (CY22) with a fall of around 9 per cent, the interest-rate hike trajectory by global central banks, paired with the conundrum of inflation and growth, will move the needle for the market, observe experts. Here's a quick rundown on what they'll react to over the next six months.
ITC was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 3 per cent, followed by HDFC Bank, PowerGrid, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank and NTPC. Nifty surged 176.80 points to a new lifetime closing high of 18,338.55.
The situation raises concerns about whether the promised freebies will once again push the state into a revenue deficit.
Home Minister Rajnath Singh said that the decision could cost the government roughly Rs 15,000 crore.
The inter-meeting rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) indicates a shift in its monetary policy stance, the finance ministry's chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian said on Thursday.
For July-September, it pegged CPI-based retail inflation at 4.2 per cent which it saw firming up to 4.8 per cent in the second half of the current fiscal.
The government is likely to name a successor to Rajan sometime this month
Trading in stock markets this week will be majorly influenced by the upcoming quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS and Infosys, along with global trends, analysts said. Besides, global oil benchmark Brent crude, rupee-dollar trend and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate the movement, they said. "On the domestic front, all eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the third quarter of the current fiscal year.
India's economic growth is now 'extremely fragile' and needs all the support that it can get, as private consumption and capital investment are yet to pick up, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Friday. Varma further said out of the four engines of growth for the economy, exports and government spending supported the Indian economy through the pandemic, but other engines need to pick up the baton now. " I like to think in terms of the four engines of growth for the economy: exports, government spending, capital investment and private consumption. "...while exports cannot be the main driver of growth because of the global slowdown, government spending is necessarily limited by fiscal constraints," he told PTI.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance despite rising inflation. This is the 11th time in a row that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has maintained the status quo. RBI had last revised its policy repo rate or the short-term lending rate on May 22, 2020 in an off-policy cycle to perk up demand by cutting the interest rate to a historic low.
RBI has cut policy rate thrice during 2015.
Equity indices made an emphatic comeback on Friday after falling for seven straight sessions after the RBI hiked interest rates by 50 basis points on expected lines and projected inflation coming under control from January next year. A strong recovery in the rupee added to the momentum, traders said. Overcoming a wobbly start, the 30-share BSE Sensex soared 1,016.96 points or 1.80 per cent to settle at 57,426.92. During the day, it rallied 1,312.67 points or 2.32 per cent to 57,722.63.
How is it that tomatoes recorded a price fall in official statistics when it remained unaffordable for the common person in June?
The year 2022 saw the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) start acting on the policy repo rate after a gap of two years. The six-member monetary policy committee of the RBI reduced interest rate sharply - by 115 bps - when Covid-19 struck in 2020. In March 2020, days after the nationwide lockdown was announced, MPC in an unscheduled meeting reduced the repo rate by 75 bps, followed by another 40 bps in May. Status quo was maintained for the next two years since the May repo rate hike.
State Bank of India chairman Dinesh Kumar Khara has pitched for tax relief on interest income, saying it would help banks to garner savings that could be used for funding long-term infra projects. Currently, banks are required to deduct tax when interest income from deposits held in all the bank branches put together is more than Rs 40,000 in a year. With regard to savings accounts, interest earned up to Rs 10,000 is exempt from tax.
Shaktikanta Das is a master of the finest balancing act who listens to all but takes his own decisions, discovers Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi's) measures to curb speculative activity in the Rs 450-trillion-a-day futures and options (F&O) market is not a case of "throwing the baby out with the bathwater," whole-time member (WTM) Ananth Narayan said on Friday. "As a regulator, we are conscious that we must not throw the baby out with the bathwater. "When it comes to frenzied trading in options nearing expiry, however, it is difficult to see any baby in this bathwater," he said while delivering his address at the 21st FICCI Annual Capital Markets Conference.
The 30-share Sensex closed 56 points at 23,815 and the 50-share Nifty closed flat at 7,109.
Monetary Policy Committee keeps key interest rate (repo) unchanged at 4% for 7th consecutive time; Consequently, reverse repo rate too remains unchanged at 3.35%; Bank rate also remains same at 4.25%;
India has put curbs on wheat exports through the government route, starting November last year. This comes amid a surge in domestic prices of the cereal. In December, India exported 391 tonnes of wheat to Bangladesh and Bhutan. In November 2022, it had exported 375 tonnes of wheat only to Bhutan.
The combined net profit of "early bird" companies, those that have declared their quarterly results, rose for the third consecutive quarter in July-September 2023 (Q2FY24). But the figures suggest a continued slowdown in revenue growth and stagnation in earnings over recent quarters. This slowdown is severe for companies in the manufacturing and non-financial service sectors.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel on Saturday exhorted banks to reduce their lending rates to push credit demand in laggard segments, saying banks have benefited from influx of low-cost deposits and its previous repo rate cuts.
'The move to remove indexation benefits on LTCGs presently available for property, gold, and other unlisted assets may have a negative impact as it directly impacts real estate investors.'
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday expressed hope that the economy will maintain the trend growth rate of 6.5 per cent and above for the rest of the years in the current decade. The economy will close the current fiscal logging in a growth of 6.5-7 per cent, he said, citing the projections of private sector analysts, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and international agencies like OECD and the IMF. "This appears to be reasonable at this point in time although we will get the data on the fiscal second quarter in a few days, which will give more clarity on these numbers.
The banking regulator was uncomfortable with the runaway pace at which consumer credit was growing.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has been pursuing hawkish monetary policy stance to keep inflation under check.
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
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Else, more capital outflow and pressure on rupee likely.
According to Japanese financial services major Nomura, despite slowing external demand, the domestic growth cycle is improving.
Per capita income in the state has consistently been below the national average for at least 24 years. However, it has narrowed the gap with the all-India level in recent years.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Vedanta, Tata Steel, Yes Bank, Tech Mahindra, Hero MotoCorp, Bharti Airtel, SBI and Bajaj Finance and IndusInd Bank, which rose up to 4.83 per cent.
Do not keep a large portion of your long-term portfolio in FDs.
'As long as economic growth remains steady, creating jobs and generating stable incomes, the rise in home loans should not create problems.' 'If the growth trajectory changes course over the medium term and interest rates rise along with inflation, the expanding trend in home loans may not sustain.'
The Sensex crashed in the last hour of trade and ended down 455 points (or 2.25%) at 19,760. Nifty slumped 138 points at 5,986.
The main increase was seen in the prices of vegetables, with the index rising by 2.98 per cent month-on-month to 120.8 points, while the index for milk and milk products went up by 1.52 per cent to 120.4 points.
RBI is closely monitoring monsoon.
With retail inflation witnessing significant uptick in May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain status quo in its August monetary policy review, according to a report. According to the SBI's research report- Ecowrap, inflation may remain elevated in the coming months due to several global and domestic factors. "We expect a status-quo in August. We believe RBI would still try to find a marriage of convenience of regulatory and developmental measures and monetary policy in August policy," the research report said on Wednesday.
Foreign brokerage HSBC said emergence of pleasing data and the likelihood of RBI holding its key rate on April 1, should not lead to believing that the rate tightening cycle is over.
